Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland ?

[HacheMan]

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland​

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This week's UFC fight card may have the big round number of 200, but wedged between two pay-per-view cards, don't expect many high-profile matchups.

You'll see mainly newcomers, but also a card packed with middleweight matchups. That includes a main event matchup between Sean Strickland and Jack Hermansson as two top-10 ranked middleweights trying to push their way into the crowded division title picture.

Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn give their favorite plays and props for the card.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Middleweight featured bout: Sean Strickland (-230) vs. Jack Hermansson (+190)​

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland​

There's value on Jack Hermansson as an underdog against Sean Strickland. Bill Streichel

This week's UFC fight card may have the big round number of 200, but wedged between two pay-per-view cards, don't expect many high-profile matchups.
You'll see mainly newcomers, but also a card packed with middleweight matchups. That includes a main event matchup between Sean Strickland and Jack Hermansson as two top-10 ranked middleweights trying to push their way into the crowded division title picture.
Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn give their favorite plays and props for the card.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Middleweight featured bout: Sean Strickland (-230) vs. Jack Hermansson (+190)​

Tale Of The Tape​

	JACK HERMANSSON	SEAN STRICKLAND
Last fight	5/22/2021	7/31/2021
Weight class	Middleweight	Middleweight
Age	33	30
Height	73	73
Reach	77.5	76
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	122.2	182.3
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	0:3	4:2
Distance knockdown rate	0.0%	1.0%
Head jab accuracy	23%	36%
Head power accuracy	31%	33%
Total stand-up strike ratio	1.3	1.2
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	63%	79%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	98%	99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.6	0.2
Takedown accuracy	36%	62%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.4	0.8
Opponent takedown attempts	20	39
Takedown defense	75%	82%
Share of total ground time in control	18%	9%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.2	0.2

Reed's pick: Money-line lean on Hermansson at clear plus money; Inside the Distance at even odds.

Neither fighter in the main event has a lot of flashy power, but both simply find ways to win. Strickland does so primarily with confident, high-pressure striking that frustrates opponents. He has good accuracy with his hands while working at a high pace and takes little damage in return. His style is almost exclusively boxing, and he spends a disproportionate share of Octagon time on his feet and at a distance. Strickland may be predictable, but few opponents (and none since moving to middleweight) have solved his game plan.

Hermansson is stylistically less predictable. He'll fight in more positions and spends much more time on the ground than Strickland. Should the fight end up there, Hermansson should be a threat with his submission game. It's not that he's overtly vulnerable on his feet, as he has gone plenty of rounds with talented strikers, it's just that his best chance for victory is to get the fight to the ground.

Strickland's takedown defense is solid at 82%, but since moving up to face larger opponents at middleweight, he has only had one takedown attempted on him over four fights. Hermansson may have his moments on his feet, but his historically poor head-strike defense might not hold up for long if he's lulled into a barrage of accurate short strikes from Strickland. Hermansson has the potential for an upset, but he'll need some scrambles or takedowns for his best chance.

 

[HacheMan]

Best bets elsewhere on the card​

Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu (-175) vs. Michael Trizano (+150)​

Reed's pick: In a tight matchup, there's value on Trizano at clear plus money, and the juice that the fight goes the distance is also worth a play, or use the Over 2.5 rounds as parlay fodder

On the undercard, featherweights Dawodu and Trizano will meet in what could be a back-and-forth battle. Neither fighter goes to ground often, so this should play out on the feet. But given that knockout power doesn't define either man, it should come down to styles and points. Dawodu is rangier and generally enjoys a volume advantage over opponents. But Trizano is slightly more accurate and has tighter defense. Expect plenty of body and leg kicks from both sides in a fairly evenly matched fight.

Featherweight: Julian Erosa (-300) vs. Steven Peterson (+240)​

Reed's pick: Money-line lean on Peterson, lean Over 2.5 rounds

Another featherweight matchup features Erosa and Peterson, who both have shown poor striking defense and are more likely to go to the ground. While Erosa enjoys a range advantage, he has also been dropped six times in his UFC career. Whether that changes his game plan, Stevenson still appears well enough matched on the feet, with potential advantages on the ground. That's enough to take a small stab at an upset.

Middleweight: Tresean Gore (-160) vs. Bryan Battle (+135)​

Ian's pick: Gore (winner)

The original TUF finale was put on hold when Gore suffered an injury and was unable to compete. Instead, Battle took on Gilbert Urbina and got a come-from-behind victory in the second round by rear naked choke. Battle was getting picked apart on the feet, but Urbina's gas tank ran out and Battle capitalized and got the win. I don't see the same result happening for Battle this time against Gore. Gore has good cardio, solid hands with tremendous power and a submission game if the fight hits the floor. I don't see Battle being able to come back the way he did against Urbina. If he struggles in the first round the same way he did in that fight, Gore will finish him, as he is the superior athlete of the two. Gore should be a heavier favorite, but due to the inactivity because of his injury, we are getting a lower price point.

Women's bantamweight: Alexis Davis (-240) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+200)​

Ian's pick: Davis via decision (winner)

Going 1-1 in her last two fights, Davis takes on another UFC prospect in Stoliarenko. Davis showed great improvements in her game when she dominated Sabina Mazo but unfortunately hit a wall when she lost to Pannie Kianzad five months later. After dropping her last two UFC fights, Stoliarenko will more than likely be fighting to keep her job. Stoliarenko lacks in the striking department but has a sneaky armbar that Davis will have to watch out for. As long as Davis stays away from that armbar, this is her fight to win.

Light heavyweight: Jailton Almeida (-400) vs. Danilo Marques (+310)​

Ian's pick: Under 1.5 rounds


When Marques steps into the Octagon, win or lose, we know the fight isn't going the distance. Marques is always dangerous in the first round because of the power in his strikes, but if he isn't able to get the finish he tends to gas out, leaving himself open to get finished. Enter Almeida. Riding a nine-fight win streak where all nine were won by finish, I expect Almeida to make it 10 straight against Marques. Look for Almeida to weather an early barrage of strikes from Marques and ultimately take him to the ground and submit him.

Welterweight: Phil Rowe (-125) vs. Jason Witt (+105)​

Ian's pick: Rowe (winner)

Witt is coming off an impressive win over UFC vet Bryan Barbarena back in July of 2021 and will be looking to make it two in a row when he takes on the exciting and dangerous Rowe. Witt's path to victory will be to put Rowe on his back and keep him there and make it an ugly wrestling match. However, I don't see it going that way. Rowe will be the better fighter no matter where the fight goes. The only issue with Rowe is sometimes he comes out very slow in Round 1. As long as he stays aggressive and controls the pace against Witt from the start, this should be win a second straight win for Rowe.